Week 573 – Sunday,2008-08-17: Post-Election Period

The Mirror, Vol. 12, No. 573

We are already three weeks past the election day, but still in the “post-election” period. The pre-election time was easier to define: first the time when there was some outlook towards the coming elections – Which parties will participate? Will there be plans by the parties that could not expect to get a very numerous response to conclude coalition agreements, or even mergers, to invest their strength and resources into common efforts? And then, finally, came the one-month election campaign.

Past experience shows that it is not possible to have such a clear time line for the post-election period. Ten years ago, three months of tensions and also violence followed after the elections. Five years ago it took one year before a new coalition government could be formed. Some of these problems were, obviously, related to the constitutional provision that to form a new government, at least two thirds of the newly elected members of the National Assembly would have to endorse the new government. The old Article 90 of the Constitution says:

“The National Assembly shall pass a vote of confidence in the Royal Government by a two-third majority of all members of the entire National Assembly membership.”

It was a surprise that, in spite of a very intensive search on the Internet, the amended text of the Constitution from 2006, which created the extremely important possibility to form a government with a simple majority – the “50 percent plus one formula” – could not be easily located. Not only foreign institutions like universities in various countries have the old “two thirds” version of the Cambodian Constitution on their web sites – also Cambodian embassies and institutions of the government in the country carry the old version.

But instead of the absolute need for the majority party, in the past, to work towards a coalition agreement as a precondition to produce a two thirds majority, the present situation will not require a coalition of partners who – in the past – entered into the coalition with reservations. The National Election Committee has not yet declared the official results, because the unofficial results are contested. This, in a way, is not unusual.

There are, however, several statements from high ranking politicians of the Cambodian People’s Party which indicate that surprises will come: the number of ministers, secretaries of state, and under-secretaries of state may be increased to 400 or even more. When in 2004 – after one year of negotiations – an agreement was achieved between the Cambodian People’s Party and Funcinpec, many new positions were created to accommodate members of both parties, and the number of top ranking government positions grew from about 200 to 334, with 186 persons in the cabinet – the most numerous government of the world. King Sihanouk commented at that time that Cambodia has one third of the size of France and has less than one quarter of the French population, continuing: “Government: France, 2004, 44 members. Cambodia, 20 July 2004, 334 members. Any comment from me would be superfluous.”
Not only the expected size of the new government is a surprise, also the fact that there are varying unofficial statements, that the present Funcinpec ministers will not remain in their positions, but members of the majority party state already that there will be again a coalition government with Funcinpec, and who of the Funcinpec leadership is acceptable and who is not. Maybe even members of other parties – except from the Sam Rainsy Party – could be invited to share some power. But the names of the persons which are mentioned seem to be nominated to be invited – they are not announced as a result of negotiations between the different parties.

We look forward to more details.