Month: October 2010

The Mirror, Vol. 14, No. 685

During my days in Germany I learned that it is important, talking about the age group of the “adults” in German society, to make a difference between those of working age, and those already retired.

After I had shared some graphic descriptions of Population Pyramids on Thursday, I would like to do some more follow-up – for two reasons: First, I am confronted with the question of the role of generation distribution in the German population wherever I go, and then the related considerations why this is so and what it means, now and in future, when comparing it with the Cambodian situation. And second, I am a little bit incapacitated with a bad, big inflammation in one elbow which makes is difficult to write; I had to cancel my flight back to Phnom Penh. It is not yet sure when I can travel.

I will repeat here some of the Population Pyramids from Thursday in a different arrangement – comparing the 1910 pyramid from Germany with the 1998 pyramid from Cambodia: both representing a kind of normalized starting point of these two societies at different points of time, with high birth rates and the number of older people getting fewer and fewer.

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But when you then look at the prediction for Germany for 2030 – with a low birth rate, and the percentage of older people getting more and more, it starts to be easier to imagine also what will happen in Cambodia. As the Cambodian population is comparatively young, and probably many children will be born from the younger generation, the lower end of the pyramid will probably stay broad, and there will be some years where it will be very difficult for those among future graduates of schools and universities to find jobs, as most jobs have been filled already recently with young people who will stay in their jobs for years to come, and even with economic growth, it will be difficult to create enough additional jobs for the strongly increasing number of job seekers.

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The comparatively large number of older people in Germany is also active into their higher years: with all kinds of activities – voluntary community services or with interesting self organized group activities. One picture shows a club of 80-and-more years old people, planning their next travel for fun by bus or train to some tourist places in Germany or in neighboring countries. I took the second and third pictures of a group of tourists at the 48 meter high hydro-electric dam of Edertalsperre, built already during the years 1908 to 1914.

When I remember the groups of people taking the bus from Phnom Penh to Kompong Som or Kep for a weekend, it is quite a different picture in terms of the average age of Cambodian weekend tourists. The future holds many challenges in both countries.

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Please recommend The Mirror also to your colleagues and friends.

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