Considering Numbers – Week 576 – Sunday,2008-09-07

The Mirror, Vol. 12, No. 576

Not all numbers require the same level of precision. In some cases we need exactness, in others it is not possible to provide a correct figure – and if it is still provided, it requires examination, because numbers show sometimes a lack of consideration, that is, a lack of considering what the reality is to which they relate, and what can be achieved by numbers. In other cases it is not possible to arrive at a clear solution when one expects it mainly from numbers – decisions may be necessary, sometimes they have to be negotiated to solve a lack of clarity or even a controversy. And some numbers may have a publicly established and emotional value – but they may not conform to reality. To revise them may be difficult. But it may be necessary – for the sake of the simple truth, of for justice, or for peace.

We will list up examples and invite your consideration and – as ever – also your comments.

We carried the results of the census on Thursady in an article that said that the Ministry of Planning had announced the results of the general census of Cambodian citizens in 2008.

“According to the temporary results of a countrywide census published on 3 March 2008, the number of Cambodian citizens is 13,388,910 persons, out of which 6,495,512 are male and 6,893,398 are female.”

The precise character of this figure of 13,388,910 persons, precisely separated in males and females, looks impressive, but is it really true? Was it ever really true in atual facts? We know that every day many people die, and while they die, new children are born. So the number may have been true at a certain point in time. But can we know – can anybody know? – when this figure was true?

The report offers some more information, saying:

“Almost all families were interviewed and counted during a time period of eleven days. Families living at home, but also at institutions such as hotels, guesthouses, pagodas, hospitals, and prisons were interviewed and counted also…

…according to the temporary results of the general census in 2008, compiling all figures by 0:00 a.m. on 3 March 2008, the population of Cambodia was 13,388,910.”

When we consider these statements carefully, it is clear that this figure of 13,388,910 does not correspond to the number of Cambodian citizens by midnight, the beginning of 3 March 2008. Not all people were counted, but only “almost all families” were counted, and this happened during a period of eleven days, during there were many births and deaths. The precise figure given represents only an addition of all the different and incomplete data, collected during eleven different days.

This is still an impressive result, but it is probably more useful to say – as we also could read – that Cambodia has a populationof 13.4 million. To give such a rounded figure goes with the understanding that this is an approximate value. This is, in a way, closer to the truth than to claim a precise figure – which is just the result of many different calculations at different points of time.

We have stated why a careful rational thinking will not accept the figure of 13,388,910 as having any general value in reality.

In other cases we need clear figures: for example for the results of the elections: the Cambodian People’s Party received 90 seats, the Sam Rainsy Party 26 seats, the Human Rights Party 3 seats, the Norodom Ranariddh Party 2 seats, and Funcinpec also 2 seats, as announced by the National Electoin Committee.

If anybody wants to question these precise figures – not rational analysis, but legal and political procedures are to be empoyed.

We want to go to another field where precise figures are the ultimate goal, but to establish them requires again a completely different approach: the demarcation of the borders.

“An official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that during one-day negotiations on 28 August 2008, Cambodia and Vietnam agreed to finish setting 100 land border markers by the end of 2008.

The official continued that the 1,270 km land border between Cambodia and Vietnam will be marked with more than 300 border markers, both on land and on the sea. The maps for the discussion used by both working groups are based on 1:100,000 scale maps…

An official of the government said that after the working groups of the three countries agreed about common maps, ‘we will use instruments receiving the data of the Global Positioning System – GPS – by pressing at the locator button [to identify the location]; for some points – the three sides said – if the GPS shows that Cambodia extends into Vietnamese territory, and in some areas Vietnam extends into Cambodia – and similarly for Laos – then each side will have to withdraw from those points.’”

Unfortunately, things are not as simple. A GPS receiver shows the exact geographical location – the geographical logitude and latitude figures – but it does not say in which territory a spot, identified by the GPS receiver, is located. In order to know if “Cambodia extends into Vietnamese territory or if Vietnam extends into Cambodia” on needs to have a precise map – or both sides will have to agree – on the spot, not in some international negotiation venue – where to put a border marker.

It is stated that maps of a scale of 1:100,000 for the border areas with Vietnam exist. The maps will not always provide the hoped for clarity. One has to actually look at such a map, where 1 millimeter on the map corresponds to 100 meters in the actual terrain of the border area, in order to understand that in most cases not the map, but an agreement on the spot between both sides will be necessary.

Of course, borders have, historiacally, often been defined not by using data which a GPS devide can produce, but borders were defined using natural features: like rivers and watersheds, where they exist. But the Preah Vihear problem originates explicitly from the fact that the old French made maps of 1904 and 1907 deviate from the originally agreed upon watershed in the Dangrek Mountain area. And while there is a controversy between Cambodia and Thailand about the 1962 dedicions of the Internatinal Court of Justice – not about the Preah Vijear Temple, but about the related border area – the Joint Communique signed between the two countries and UNESCO on 18.6.2008 leaves the border question open – for bilateral clarification.

No claim that the size of Cambodia is 181,035 square kilometers can help to avoid that every single border marker between cambodia and its three neighbors – Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam – will have to be set on the ground by mutual agreement. And at the end a new calculation will show if the number of 181, 035 square kilometers is still correct, or whether it will have to be revised, up or down.